The Gartner Hype Cycle

SirsiDynix is a Gartner Group client and we use their reports, insights and advice to help us understand the constantly myutating landscape of the IT world. Last week they publicly released their 2005 hype cycle here.
The hype cycle is quite a famous Gartner innovation. It tracks new technological innovations and plots them on a curve as to where they are in Gartner’s Hype Cycle Model which follows these five stages:
1. Technology Trigger: A breakthrough, public demonstration, product launch or other event generates significant press and industry interest.
2. Peak of Inflated Expectations: During this phase of over enthusiasm and unrealistic projections, a flurry of well-publicized activity by technology leaders results in some successes, but more failures, as the technology is pushed to its limits. The only companies making money are conference organizers and magazine publishers.
3. Trough of Disillusionment: Because the technology does not live up to its over inflated expectations, it rapidly becomes unfashionable. Media interest wanes, except for a few cautionary tales.
4. Slope of Enlightenment: Focused experimentation and solid hard work by an increasingly diverse range of organizations lead to a true understanding of the technology’s applicability, risks and benefits. Commercial, off-the-shelf methodologies and tools ease the development process.
5. Plateau of Productivity: The real-world benefits of the technology are demonstrated and accepted. Growing numbers of organizations feel comfortable with the reduced levels of risk, and the rapid growth phase of adoption begins.
Further details on how to interpret the Gartner hype cycles can be found in the hype cycle spotlight here. It is a compelling model at a gut level. It just feels right because we’ve all experienced the hype and disillusion and then adapted the new innovation somehow.
This current release talks about a number of technologies which are relevant to the library world and where they’re at evolutionarily. These include podcasting, P2P VOIP, Desktop searching, RSS, Corporate Blogging, Wikis, SOA, Web Services, XBRL, BPP, Location aware (GPS) services, RFID and mesh networks.
Gartner highlights the importance of keeping all technologies on your radar (or at least being assured that your key vendor partners are). I love this quote from the press release:
“Don’t invest in a technology just because it is being hyped or ignore a technology just because it is not living up to early over expectations,” she said. “If a technology fits with your overall business strategy you should be evaluating it from the outset, if you are unsure, wait until more research is available.”
My feelings exactly.
Stephen
Gartner identifies Trends for Technology Adoption
“Gartner…released its 2005 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, assessing the maturity, impact and adoption speed of 44 technologies and trends over the coming decade.” [press release]
Key collaboration technologies in the “hype cycle” include: Podcasting, Peer to Peer (P2P) voice over IP (VoIP), Desktop Search, Really Simple Syndication (RSS), Corporate Blogging, and Wikis.