Comments on: 30 Library Technology Predictions for 2008

By: Ben

Ben — Sat, 05 Jan 2008 13:14:49 +0000

I think it’s interesting that you feel Blockbuster and other physical entities are in their death throes but the DRM wars are just heating up.
I don’t think libraries should be in the business of DRM and, at least for the forseable future, DRM and digital media will walk hand in hand. Customers will not fully adopt DRM type media at the library until there is standardization. Our circulation for NetLibrary is marginal, at best, because people own iPods, not Plays For Sure compatible players.
Additionally, I feel streaming is a long way off with the rise of high definition.
I’d also be interesting in seeing your source for the adoption of streaming media (at least as it replaces DVDs) in Europe.
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You did see that the big 4 music publishers abandoned DRM in the last few months including Sony BMG last week?
If libraries form better consortia and license the stuff right – just like they buy books and databases – there is no reason they can’t make a made-for-libraries DRM-less licensing solution. It may take some time and oinvolve some nasty negoatiations but that’ll break the impasse. As long as libraries neglect to use their econonic power they willl be forced to just go with what s offered.
SA

By: Angela Carito-Walmsley

Angela Carito-Walmsley — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 22:46:14 +0000

This is an amazing list of predictions!
#17 is especially interesting.
I’ve been using Tumblr since it began and belong to a loyal Tumblr community. I’d hate to see it fall in the hands of one of the Internet ‘giants’. Tumblr founder, David Karp (21!) already sold 25% of company in 2007.
Read more at: http://www.alleyinsider.com/2007/10/tumblr-funded-750k-vimeo.html
Tumblr will definitely be one to watch in 2008.

By: effinglibrarian

effinglibrarian — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 07:34:39 +0000

#18, I don’t know what computing power this would take because it seems like this should have happened already. all Google needs to do is change that lame “I’m feeling lucky” button to one that says, “I’m feeling local.” p.s., got my predictions for 2008 here, http://lisnews.org/node/28735

By: Karen E

Karen E — Wed, 02 Jan 2008 19:21:07 +0000

? I’m confused how the demise of Blockbuster-like entities reflect in any way a possible issue for libraries (which #25 seems to imply).
Libraries are more than their collection, unlike video stores. Libraries hold more knowledge and create more links to other resources of knowledge and information, unlike video stores.
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Of course libraries are more than their collections. However if we are blind to the changes that are affecting Blockbuster we would be very foolish.
Libraries lend, Blockbuster rents. Youo have to drive or go someway to both to get their collections.
Many libraries get 30-45% of their circulation from lending DVD’s and videos. If you can get videos with no need to leave your home…. Hmmmmmm.
If the DVD format dies (and it is) and everyone goes to streaming media (like Europe mostly has), what is your library going to have to attract user to get all the rest of our goodness? How great are your ads and marketing to ocversome the research that OCLC published that the image of libraries is books, books, books, DVDs?
Now when potentially 2,500,000 ebooks are online by 2010, through the Google BookSearch and OCA and over 10,000 publishers are already signed up for the entire current file, and Google rents each for 99 cents, why would I drive to a library (at $4 a gallon gas) when I can download. We better have a better user awareness of all our value add!
If we can’t even see the Blockbuster problem or learn from that issue as it changes small parts of our mission, then we’re doomed.
SA

By: Courtney

Courtney — Wed, 02 Jan 2008 12:41:25 +0000

In response to #4 and #12, I’m considering encouraging patrons to get Google accounts for access to the Documents suite. I am tired of patrons losing all their work when his or her computer time runs out. Or selling disks for $1 during the last 3 minutes of the time the patron has to use the computer. While the relationship between librarians and certain Google programs has been antagonistic, the online word processor seems like a great solution to the dissapointment and frustration I get from patrons losing their resumes/homework/email everyday.
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Cool,
SA

By: Donald Bidd

Donald Bidd — Mon, 31 Dec 2007 08:52:58 +0000

Great post Steven….what do you think will be the impact of the increased use of Open Source on commercial ILS vendors? What will be their strategy? I just finished Tapscott’s Wikinomics, and greatly enjoyed the section on Prosumers and the new business model for development of products driven by the client. Do you think the ILS vendors will be exploring radically different business and development models?
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Hi Don:
OS is a disruptive technology and as such has great potential in both directions – good and bad. Both dies of the OS debate need to to discuss both scenarios equally. Smart ILS vendors will embrace a hybrid model of OS and allow for the stability of strong companies with responsible, authentic support systems (insurance, names, etc.) to be blended with emerging OS solutions through SaaS, API’s, mashups, etc. OS needs to be held to the same standard – so RFP expectatiojn by which judgments are made may need to be re-written or management needs to ask why the RFP standards are being circumvented and if anything important is being lost in the process and what the real risks are. Some ILS companies will not survive is they have locked up data, API’s, or are too inflexible. A fossil is the most stable point in the lifetime of a skeleton.
SA