I find this list of predictions very interesting. I especially agree with #1 but don’t agree with #5. I think e-textbooks will evolve naturally and that 2011 is not their big year but they will see strong growth and adoption. They just won’t look particulary like traditional texts.
“Richard Curtis, veteran literary agent and president of Ereads.com, shared a few publishing predictions for 2011.
1. Google Editions will be a game-changer in the e-book field
2. There will be at least one shocking merger or acquisition of print publishers or of print and e-book publishers
3. The Big Six publishers will raise their current royalty rate over the standard 25% they currently offer
4. Educators, psychologists and parents will report learning and retention problems for children reading on screens.
5. College students will reject e-textbooks in favor of paper ones
6. Print on demand will grow in stature as the preferred retail model, and traditional bookstore distribution based on returnability will continue to falter
7. We will begin to see e-book kiosks in bookstores and possibly in non-bookstores
8. Children’s, middle reader and young adult titles will dominate the trade book field
9. Authors will go on virtual book tours and attend virtual publishing conferences without leaving home
10. More and more books published by small presses you never heard of; and more niche publishing as e-book publishers discover they can make money publishing books for small, special audiences.”
What do you think?