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Predictions on the Future of Book Publishing

This collection of assorted predictions would make a great start for a good debate. I agree with some and some are pretty obvious. Others are quite silly to my mind and understanding.

10 Biggest Predictions for the Future of Book Publishing

1. Vanity presses and self-publishing will swell in popularity
2. More writers and artists will experiment with motion comics
3. There will be little need for gargantuan publishers
4. More people will be authors
5. eBooks will only get more popular
6. Authors will grow even more media-savvy
7. Memoirs expand as a genre
8. Books will no longer have a minimum length
9. eBook readers will move even further away from E Ink

I always think it’s interesting people believe that everyone will become a polymath due to new technology. Great and other lesser authors will quickly develop marketing and sales skills, printing and e-book development skills, channel management, PR and pricing skills and more as long as they have the means of production and web savvy. Gutenberg went bankrupt three times. The printing press improvements did not make him a publisher nor a good at business. There will be some successes but organizations and group effort exist for a reason.

Anyway, this list would make a great basis for a discussion some day with a diverse group.


Posted on: January 9, 2011, 6:31 am Category: Uncategorized

2 Responses

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  1. As a Librarian I often get self published books posted to me with exhortations to buy ……. some are readable others are not, there is usually a good reason that publishers won’t publish a story. others would benefit from some good editiing and possibly become a much better novel or memoir. As you say just because they can write and self publish does not mean they will succeed.

  2. Here are some more predictions:

    –Dan Poynter, The Self-Publishing Manual,

    Brick and mortar stores will continue to close. This includes bookstores.
    Their downtown rents are higher than for online stores.

    eBook publishing and reading will continue to grow.
    Printed books will still be needed for promotion.

    More and more established authors will abandon their New York publishers when their contracts let them.

    Ads will begin to appear in eBooks. Unlike pBooks, the ads can be added at any time and charged for by the book. eBooks offer an additional profit center.

    More books will be made into Apps but only the interactive App will be viable. Static, one-use Apps offer no advantage over an eBook.

    Pre-Pub reviews will disappear. Without brick and mortar stores and the three selling seasons, there is no need for advance notice of books.

    More magazines and newspapers will close.
    Advertisers are following eyeballs from print to online.

    Books in Print will become irrelevant. There is more bibliographic information at Amazon and the information is free.

    The future of nonfiction publishing is eBooks.
    The future of eBooks is color.

    The future of reading is on a screen.
    The future of authoring is multimedia.

    The book publishing industry is changing.
    Some changes we like and some make us anxious.
    We can look ahead and take advantage of the coming changes or we can wait until the Recession is over—and hope to go back to business as usual? The same business won’t be there.
    You can be part of the steamroller or part of the road.