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NIC: Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds

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Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds “is the fifth installment in the National
Intelligence Council’s series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about
the future. As with previous editions, we hope that this report will stimulate
strategic thinking by identifying critical trends and potential discontinuities.
We distinguish between megatrends, those factors that will likely occur under
any scenario, and game-changers, critical variables whose trajectories are far
less certain. Finally, as our appreciation of the diversity and complexity of
various factors has grown, we have increased our attention to scenarios or
alternative worlds we might face. We are at a critical juncture in human
history, which could lead to widely contrasting futures. It is our contention
that the future is not set in stone, but is malleable, the result of an
interplay among megatrends, game-changers and, above all, human agency. Our
effort is to encourage decision makers—whether in government or outside—to think
and plan for the long term so that negative futures do not occur and positive
ones have a better chance of unfolding.”



Posted on: January 16, 2013, 7:19 am Category: Uncategorized

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