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HBR: How Our Company Learned to Make Better Predictions About Everything

HBR:

How Our Company Learned to Make Better Predictions About Everything

https://hbr.org/2017/05/how-our-company-learned-to-make-better-predictions-about-everything

“Research from organizational psychologist Philip Tetlock, the co-author of Superforecasting, suggests an alternative. Studying forecasting tournaments where anonymous experts predicted future events, Tetlock found that some forecasters could consistently predict better than others. Rather than possessing some innate talent, so-called “superforecasters” demonstrate what Tetlock describes as a “growth mindset,” or a willingness to learn from past mistakes and continually update their theoretical priors. Our ability to predict, like any other skill, can improve with practice.”

Stephen

Posted on: June 2, 2017, 6:47 am Category: Uncategorized