Why technology forecasting goes wrong
“Lovely set of pieces in Slate on the Future of the Future. One article in particular caught my eye, which is an analysis of 81 technology articles and press releases going back to the 1990s in which things are said about what will be true in 5-10 years. As the article points out, one especially common mistake is to confuse the invention of something with its widespread adoption and use.
The full set of articles can be found here.”
Stephen
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