HBR:

What Research Tells Us About Making Accurate Predictions

https://hbr.org/2015/02/what-research-tells-us-about-making-accurate-predictions

““Prediction is very difficult,” the old chestnut goes, “especially about the future.” And for years, social science agreed. Numerous studies detailed the forecasting failures of even so-called experts. Predicting the future is just too hard, the thinking went; HBR even published an article about how the art of forecasting wasn’t really about prediction at all.

That’s changing, thanks to new research.

We know far more about prediction than we used to, including the fact that some of us are better at it than others. But prediction is also a learned skill, at least in part — it’s something that we can all become better at with practice. And that’s good news for businesses, which have tremendous incentives to predict a myriad of things.’

Stephen