Publishing and Books in 10 years

From the Kindle Review blog:

Publishing and Books in 10 years

Answering the following questions…

Will there be more readers?
Will there be more people reading books or less?
Will these people be reading more books per person?
What share of the market will ebooks have?
How many eReaders will be in circulation?
Will eReaders be a niche market or not?
Will multi-purpose devices kill eReaders?
Will one company dominate eReader sales?
Will one company dominate eBook sales?
Will there be any monopolies?
Will we have closed, walled gardens or free and open systems?
Will readers still pay for books?
What prices will books be at?
Will Authors be able to earn a decent living? What percentage?
Will books have advertising?
Which companies have the best shot?
Will Publishers still be in a position of power?
Will the platform companies become dominant?
Will Crowd Intelligence take over?
Who will readers turn to for recommendations?

“What will be the 10 biggest changes in 2010 through 2020?

In no particular order –

1.50-50 split between paper and electronic books.
2.eReaders grow to over 100 million units in circulation.
3.2 to 3 Platform Companies dominate – Apple and Amazon are the likeliest.
4.2 to 3 of the Big Publishers survive and have the next most power (after platforms).
5.25% more People read than now. People read 40% more with eReaders than they did without eReaders.
6.eBooks are priced between $4 and $10 with readers accepting these prices.
7.Closed, walled gardens dominate and sustain eBooks (and Books).
8.1 to 2 companies dominate eBook sales – Amazon, Apple, and probably Google.
9.Top 1% of authors make over a million (or close) every year and next 9% of authors earn a very good living.
10.The core definition of books doesn’t change – color books, interactive books, video books and various other contraptions don’t kill or hurt books as we know them now.”

Good questions, interesting answers.

It would make an interesting staff session, no?

All debatable but change is in then air.

Stephen