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The Incomparable Lee Rainie

I had the great opportunity to hear Lee twice in the last month. I blogged Dr. Rainie last week too here.
While my notes can never replace the real thing, here’s what I wrote down:
145 million or 73% of Americans have internet access.
79 million or 87% of all teens.
79 million or 39% are broadband already.
If you’re broadband you are more likely to go online, use a greater variety of content and services, more likely to create content and have a more positive attitude.
1/4 of Americans do not use the Internet.
1/5 have never had any serious contact with the internet.
This is largely because of their social environment, their location or by personal choice.
Broadband adoption will slow as the pool of interested upgraders shrinks.
Non users / users divide up this way:
– half are cold to the internet, isolated and indifferent to it.
– some have a tepid relationship and dial up is fine with them
– 40-50% are hot to the internet and these are the broadband users who are also hyper-connected and use PDA’s etc. in their voracious information use.
The heaviest users are the cohort under 36 years old. They are broadband, heavy long term users (6-12 years). They are 60% more likely to get their news from the internet than newspapers, TV or radio. They love blogs but don’t shun traditional sources.
It will sound quaint a generation from now that we were discussing the various content channels. We are waiting for the next killer app. The big events have been circa 1991 when the public internet started and 1994 when the browser was released. We’re awaiting the next e-mail killer app and streaming media might not be it.
There is a threat to internet neutrality. There are moves afoot to control the flow of internet information. The market as a whole prefers the ‘whole feast’ and everything – the market prefers neutrality. This will put the forces at odds.
39% have broadband at home.
Another 10-15% have broadband at work which tends to be used for personal and work use.
AOL is forcing many of its users onto broadband.
The big two gaps are related to rural use. First the issue with flat out internet access at all and then the issue of broadband access. Half of all rural citizens don’t know if they have access.
Chat room use is declining. However, merely having internet access is a “very strong indicator of joining a group.” This is a strong mechanism for creating social capital. Groups are anything from book clubs, sporting teams, etc.
IM is the preferred method for communicating now. “E-mail is for talking to ‘old’ people.”
Youth are wild for Facebook and MySpace. These are growing at about 250,000 new users a DAY! Other hot sites are Second Life, iTunes Garageband, eBay, Zillow, Skype and sites that allow for mashups and remixing.
“Half of people searching are searching for information for another person.”
“Many are trying to find experts and not just information.”
5 big trends to watch:
1. Smart devices – everything is connected (toilets, golf balls, dog tags, etc.)
2. Mobility Power of teens – 70% have a cel, 25% have a laptop, 20 have a wireless PDA. This leads to smart mobs. “The conversation never ends.”
3. Growing content creation and content sharing – Yahoo! grows by 5 terabytes of data day. Add more webcams, podcasts, blog swarms, citizen news, etc.
4. Search Power will expand and become more social – semantic and social web, collaboraive filtering, tagging and social filters. e.g. del.icio.us, Flickr, Eurekster, etc.
5. Data linked to its geographic context. Reputation systems move into the social realm.
Notions to watch:
1. The Long Tail from Chris Anderson. This is the notion that 20-40% of usage, traffic or sales is in the long tail of services like Amazon, Rhapsody, iTunes, NetFlix, etc. for books, music and movies.
2. Smart Mobs. Read more in a book by Howard Rheingold called “The Next Social Revolution.”
3. “Continuous Partial Attention” as promulgated by Linda Stone in the Kaiser Family Foundation report on Generation M.
4. Daniel Levi’s theories on the role of technology in our culture from Josef Pieper’s book “Leisure: The Basis of Culture”. Leisure is not about idleness but about stillness and we might want to start planning for more stillness in our culture.
In the end Lee called for more balance and a better mix in our world. Libraries are ideally situated for this place. We must balance the connected and the contemplative; be open to inputs but also our muse; be aware of insights and research; be on top of the latest news but being aware of the restorative powers of turning things off. Lee called for an Information Habitat where there is time for rest and contemplation too.
Wise words, as always.
Stephen

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Posted on: March 10, 2006, 2:39 pm Category: Uncategorized

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