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How you can avoid committing the “conjunction fallacy”

 http://boingboing.net/2016/08/25/how-you-can-avoid-committing-t.html 
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Here is a logic puzzle created by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky.

“Linda is single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with the issue of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in demonstrations. Which of the following is more probable: Linda is a bank teller or Linda is a bank teller AND is active in the feminist movement?”

In studies, when asked this question, more than 80 percent of people chose number two. Most people said it was more probably that Linda is a bank teller AND active in the feminist movement, but that’s wrong. Can you tell why?”

Stephen

Posted on: September 25, 2016, 6:25 am Category: Uncategorized

One Response

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  1. There is nothing in the information we have to suggest she would be a bank teller. She may be more likely to be active in the feminist movement than not (though, we don’t know that either), but that is not what we are being asked. In both cases, we would need to know about her likelihood of being a bank teller. And we simply don’t.